In 30 years, developed countries will switch to electric vehicles. What awaits Russia

Experts told what electric cars will be like in 30 years

From 2035 in Europe, the USA and China intend to ban the sale of new cars using fossil fuels

Через 30 лет развитые страны перейдут на электромобили. Что ждет Россию

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By 2050, there should be no cars using fossil fuels in the EU countries: gasoline, diesel fuel or gas. To this end, the European Parliament has already adopted a ban on the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars from 2035. Similar measures have been announced by the US and China.

The Tesla effect and the benefits of mobile phones

Decisions to ban cars with an internal combustion engine began to be taken by the governments of developed countries shortly after the first truly successful electric car manufacturer appeared in the world, Tesla, which not only created cars, but also makes a profit from it, recalls the founder of the company “Rucars electric cars” Roman Of reason.

According to him, Tesla was the first to think of making cars with batteries that provide a significant power reserve, and they immediately became popular. The batteries themselves, which make up traction batteries, already existed at that time: the industry for their production was created because of the needs for mobile devices.

After that, the major automakers, who for years refused to switch to the production of electric vehicles under the pretext that such cars would not be in demand, had no arguments left.

Alexander Kamashev, General Director of the company “Renera”, which is building a plant for the production of traction batteries in Kaliningrad, agrees with him.

“Since the beginning of the 21st century, technology has been accelerating exponentially. One can argue for a long time about the benefits or harms of these innovations, but they are already here and changing people’s lives,” Kamashev says.

The European Union in March of this year decided to ban the sale of new gasoline anddiesel cars from 2035. The document was adopted with one exception, which Germany insisted on. It concerns cars powered by carbon-neutral synthetic fuel: these cars with internal combustion engines will still be able to register.

Через 30 лет развитые страны перейдут на электромобили. Что ждет Россию

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According to the European doctrine, by 2050 there should be no cars with engines using fossil fuels on the roads of the European Union. Cars sold before 2035 will have exhausted their resource by that time. It is not yet clear what will happen to those cars that will survive until 2050. There are no plans to ban them, but in theory they can ban the sale of gasoline, reasoned Razudkov.

In the United States, a decree banning the sale of new gasoline cars from 2035 was signed by incumbent President Joe Biden. Now it should be supported by the authorities of individual states. Some, in particular densely populated California, have already confirmed that they will ban gasoline cars regardless of the position of the federal authorities.

China, which is currently the leader in the production and sales of electric vehicles in the world, also plans to ban gasoline and diesel cars from 2035.

These are the three main global automotive markets, however, many other countries are taking similar initiatives. So, from 2040, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Cambodia and India, Kenya and Mexico, signatories of the Glasgow Declaration, want to introduce a ban on cars using fossil fuels. The list of countries that have already announced at least their intention to ban cars using fuel derived from oil and gas is measured in dozens.

Sales of electric vehicles are growing by tens of percent annually

The development of the electric vehicle market in recent years has been closely monitored by the Bloomberg new energy forum (BloombergNEF) agency created for this purpose. According to their latest report, which was released in June 2023, in 2022 alone, sales of electric vehicles worldwide increased by 62%, while the automotive market as a whole grew by only 2%.

Через 30 лет развитые страны перейдут на электромобили. Что ждет Россию

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In almost all countries, there is a decline in sales of cars with internal combustion engines: on average, this segment fell by 2%. Of the major markets, the growth in sales of gasoline cars was observed only in Australia, and then only by 1%. In other countries, a decrease was recorded.

According to the forecast of BloombergNEF, in 2027 there will be a peak in oil consumption in the world, after which this indicator will decrease due to an increase in the share of electric vehicles. The peak of harmful emissions from cars into the atmosphere will be in 2029. Already, more than 10% of the global car market is occupied by electric vehicles, and in the segment of two-wheeled vehicles (including electric bikes) this share is 49%.

EV Volume project analyst Jose Pontes states in his latest report that 928 thousand electric vehicles were sold in the world in April 2023 alone, which is 10% of the total market for new cars. Taking into account rechargable hybrids, this share is 14%, and if we count together with all hybrids, then in April cars with electric motors accounted for 26% of sales.

BloombergNEF predicts that by 2040 there will already be 730 million electric cars on the world’s roads. By this time, only 335 million cars consuming fossil fuels will remain. In order to fully transfer the industry to electric vehicles, $ 1.9 trillion will have to be spent by 2050, the agency’s analysts estimate.

What is happening in Russia

In August 2021, a concept for the development of electric vehicle transport was adopted in Russia. It is designed not for 30 years, but only until 2030, and provides that by this time 10% of all cars produced in Russia will be electric. And, according to a newer strategy for the development of the Russian automotive industry, calculated until 2035, by 2030, the share of electric vehicles may amount to 15% of the total market volume of the country.

In 2021, only electric buses were mass-produced in Russia, but already at the beginning of 2023 it became clear that the benchmarks laid down in the first concept could be exceeded. So, in 2023 alone, it was planned to produce 7400 electric vehicles in Russia, but automakers’ plans for this year amount to 18 529 cars.

Через 30 лет развитые страны перейдут на электромобили. Что ждет Россию

Photo: Ministry of Industry and Trade

At the same time, electric cars of at least three brands are already being produced in Russia: Moskvich 3e and Evolute from Chinese car kits, as well as commercial EVM PRO based on commercial UAZs.

Kirill Komarov, the first Deputy General director of Rosatom, spoke about the practical meaning of developing the production of electric vehicles in Russia at the recent St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. It is this Russian company that is already building a plant for the production of traction batteries and promises to localize the production of electric motors and energy converters.

According to Komarov, the logic lies in the fact that 2022 showed the rudimentary state of the automotive components industry in Russia, and if you start their production from a low base, it is better to immediately bet on electric transport, since in this area all countries are forced to start almost from scratch and Russia’s lag is therefore not so noticeable.

At the same time , an independent consultant in the automotive industry , Sergey Burgazliev , in a conversation with Autonews.ru expressed the opinion that in Russia due to geographicalIt is much more profitable to develop biofuel cars rather than electric vehicles.

“We need to take not a Chinese or other path towards electric vehicles, but a South American one, where 80% of cars are already fueled with biofuels. This is no less environmentally friendly than electric cars, but Russia has an advantage in this,” Burgazliev said.

Not only electro

The website of the European Parliament explicitly states that the ban on cars that consume fossil fuels leaves motorists with several options for choosing cars. In addition to classic battery-powered electric cars, these are hydrogen cars and cars with internal combustion engines that use synthetic fuel instead of gasoline or diesel fuel.

Через 30 лет развитые страны перейдут на электромобили. Что ждет Россию

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At the same time, the European Parliament notes that the mentioned alternative energy sources to electricity are noticeably more expensive, which means that their use is advisable except in long-range trucks and in aviation, where batteries cannot provide sufficient range.

As for hydrogen, in addition to the high cost of this type of fuel and the shortage of gas stations, even against the background of the number of charges for electric vehicles, this energy source has its drawbacks. Firstly, it is the high fluidity of the substance itself: hydrogen, the lightest chemical element in the periodic table, literally seeps through the seals and walls of the fuel system, leaving a parked car for several weeks with a half-empty cylinder.

The second drawback is due to the fact that the hydrogen in the car is used to generate electricity, which rotates the electric motor. This happens in special fuel cells, the power of which is limited. This is not critical for trucks and buses, but passenger hydrogen cars are much inferior to battery-powered ones in dynamics.

As for synthetic fuel, the idea with it is to use carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and seawater for synthesis with the help of “pure” electricity of a combustible hydrocarbon, similar in properties to gasoline.

When such fuel is burned, approximately the same amount of greenhouse carbon dioxide will enter the atmosphere as when gasoline is burned. The difference is that in the production of synthetic fuels, an equal amount of carbon dioxide is absorbed from the atmosphere, and when burned, it returns back. When burning petroleum products, such as gasoline, previously unabsorbed carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere, and its content in the air increases. That’s why synthetic fuels are considered a renewable energy source, and petroleum products are not renewable.

Nevertheless, such synthetic fuel can become an outlet for gasoline cars that will remain after 2050. And for sports cars with internal combustion engines. It is no coincidence that the entire Formula 1 is switching to synthetic fuel from 2026.

Через 30 лет развитые страны перейдут на электромобили. Что ждет Россию

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